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Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season
Future start Starting this early.--Isaac829 02:17, September 16, 2012 (UTC) My predictions = 19 21 named storms, 12 13 hurricanes, 6 major hurricanes. AndrewTalk To Me 02:57, September 16, 2012 (UTC) list would prob get up to lorena being a winter storm in hawaii :D 20:24, October 14, 2012 (UTC) :13-10-8. Outlook looking better and better. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 22:04, April 13, 2013 (UTC) :Season starting in a couple days :D --Isaac829 20:15, May 2, 2013 (UTC) :10 days till season starts.Isaac829 05:28, May 5, 2013 (UTC) Still thinking 14-18 storms, 6-9 hurricanes, 3-5 majors, and 100 to 120% of median ACE values. Pretty average season overall. 'Ryan1000' 16:13, May 5, 2013 (UTC) May 01E.ALVIN AOI: South of Cost Rica System flared up over the far eastern edge of the Pacific Ocean this morning and is now a peculiar and interest blob of thunderstorm activity south of Costa Rica. Latest analysis from the Ocean Prediction Center say that this is a 1008 mbar low-pressure system embedded in the ITCZ. Our first AOI in the EPAC this year. Bears watching. 'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 20:57, May 12, 2013 (UTC) I was just coming to the Wiki to tell everyone that too. Haha, It seems that we might have an early riser this season, possibly before the season even starts. This AOI looks particularly interesting to me, as of 7:20 p.m. MDT, I looked at a moving satellite picture on the NHC website. The system is beginning to show some slight rotation and thunderstorm convection looks to be somewhat healthy. Could this become Alvin? Or at least TD 1? We'll have to see. STO12 (talk) 01:20, May 13, 2013 (UTC) Currently, this system is not on the GTWO, but I will not be surprised if the NHC issues a special one soon. AndrewTalk To Me 11:09, May 13, 2013 (UTC) 90E.INVEST I'm currently not expecting much out of this one, but the next few weeks are going to be quite interesting. Several models see quite a bit of action in the next several days as a powerful MJO pulse comes into the Atlantic and EPac by about May 22nd. By then the CMS sees at least 2 or 3, and possibly even 4, storms developing in the EPac, though heading out to sea. The 06Z GFS is consistent with developing an area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean by that time and that could possibly become Andrea. Of course, this is 200 or more hours into the future and the uncertainty is quite high at that point in time, but the next few weeks will bear watching nontheless. I think it's time to wake up from our NHem slumber. There also might have been a subtropical storm in the Atlantic north of the Lesser Antillies the past few days, but NHC never issued any special advisory on that. Might be discovered post-season, if it isn't operationally. 'Ryan1000' 18:52, May 13, 2013 (UTC) :The models are in love with this system, most take it up to a hurricane in a few days time, but I think that's a bit bullish for this time of year. Regarding that "sub-tropical storm" we had a few days ago, it was interesting, but it was sort lived and probably will not be added at the end of this year. I found the track I made on several different weather blogs which was cool, but on the other hand felt like they forced a storm out of that low. Going to be tracking more potent systems in the upcoming months. This year is definitely going to be much more interesting than what we have had the last few years. Supportstorm (talk) 23:06, May 13, 2013 (UTC) :::It's possible this could become a hurricane, but yeah, that's pretty agressive for a storm this early on. Alma of 1990 remains the earliest hurricane on record to form in the East Pacific proper since the sattelite era began, becoming a cat 1 on the day the season begun, May 15 (though Ekeka of 1992 is undoubtedly the earliest one known to form east of the dateline itself). I have doubts this will do it though. And knowing this year will be ENSO-neutral, we could see anything from a re-2005 (hopefully not) to a re-2000 or 2008. 2013 will definitely be interesting to watch. 'Ryan1000' 23:18, May 13, 2013 (UTC) :::::On TWO at 30%!Isaac829 19:54, May 14, 2013 (UTC) This will most likely become Alvin, from nothing to 30%? I mean come on! This thing is getting more organized and is in a slightly favorable environment. Another early season start, about the same time as Aletta from last year. STO12 (talk) 21:43, May 14, 2013 (UTC) : Some models do see this turning north in 4-5 days and possibly threatining southern Baja California, but I think this will, more likely than not, stay out to sea. I do think this will become Alvin though, it's moving into an increasingly favorable environment. The MJO pulse that will come here in a week or so is just getting warmed up with Alvin-to-be. 'Ryan1000' 11:08, May 15, 2013 (UTC : 80% here comes td1 and possibly Alvin.Allanjeffs 12:50, May 15, 2013 (UTC) : THE WAIT IS FINALLY OVER! Tropical Depression One-E has now formed! The Munk is expected to become a Category 1/2 hurricane this Friday according to the NHC! The system is moving westwards at 10kt. Guys, what do you think? 16:30, May 15, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Depression One-E First storm forms on the first day of season. Perfect.--Isaac829 19:31, May 15, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Storm Alvin That didn't take long... Supportstorm (talk) 20:45, May 15, 2013 (UTC) :It looks very nicely organized for it's current intensity. Yqt1001 (talk) 00:11, May 16, 2013 (UTC) ::It's 40 knts per ATCF. GO EPAC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 02:06, May 16, 2013 (UTC) :::^ Basin discrimination (Just kidding). Alvin looks better every hour.--Isaac829 02:13, May 16, 2013 (UTC) ::::Abnormally high SSTs ahead, would not be suprised to see our first major of the year. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 02:16, May 16, 2013 (UTC) :::::Like YE prefer the Epac I prefer the Atlantic anyways Alvin have a chance to reach cat 1 hurricane or 2 our vacations are over the hurricane season is here.Allanjeffs 02:48, May 16, 2013 (UTC) Neat how Alvin developed on par with the start of the hurricane season. I think this will peak as a solid Category 1 hurricane. As of nightfall its CDO has expanded. 'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 02:52, May 16, 2013 (UTC) Probably not as fast as it form it would probably die it looks like it has join the monsoon through.Allanjeffs 20:26, May 16, 2013 (UTC) : 40 mph now. Could be gone tomorrow.Isaac829 02:42, May 17, 2013 (UTC) : Its down and out imoAllanjeffs 17:48, May 19, 2013 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Alvin And it's dead. Never got past 50 mph. Unfortunately, this one failed. I was really hoping at least a cat 1 out of this. 'Ryan1000' 11:12, May 17, 2013 (UTC) Wow, Alvin passed by so fast. I missed this storm entirely. Maybe I will catch Barbara. AndrewTalk To Me 11:16, May 17, 2013 (UTC) : At 20% atm.Isaac829 21:42, May 17, 2013 (UTC) :: What a twist, now the whole world is dead. As fast as the season began it died out. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 00:45, May 18, 2013 (UTC) Back up to 30% again. It's got marginal SSTs to work with but the upper level winds are decreasing. Keep an eye out. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 19:50, May 18, 2013 (UTC) :It looks like it's trying to make the best out of what it has. A look at the NHC's TAFB forecast doesn't expect much from this either. All the winds are stacked towards the north of the system, and it looks like it'll be that way from now on. 'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 22:08, May 18, 2013 (UTC) Back down to 20% again. 'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 14:38, May 19, 2013 (UTC) Down to 10% as conditions become unfavorable. AndrewTalk To Me 18:08, May 19, 2013 (UTC) It has been almost a week and Alvin is still quite lively. Seems quite organized on the current satellite images actually. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 23:11, May 23, 2013 (UTC) AOI: Over Colombia/Panama GFS and several other models pulls out a weak tropical storm/depression out of this one four day onwards. Amazingly enough, it is already sitting at 1005mb. With almost non-existent wind shear ahead of its path, we might get Barbara in a couple of days time. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 00:21, May 20, 2013 (UTC) : Two Storms in May? For 2 straight years? Wow, that's a first. Hope that happens! 'Ryan1000' 01:26, May 20, 2013 (UTC) :: LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ON WED AS A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE E PACIFIC NEAR 09N87W LATE IN THE WEEK. :: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SOF 12N AS THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 09N ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. We've got company. Two separate systems will move into the EPac later today and later this week. GFS anticipates a weak coast-hugger tropical storm/depression, similar to the track of Odile 08'. Keep your eyes open, the sea is not dead. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 19:31, May 20, 2013 (UTC) :Dunno what NHC is doing with their TWOs, but TCFP anticipates some chance of formation. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 00:12, May 21, 2013 (UTC) :::I do too, but not until, say 4 days out. Btw (off-topic a bit), pray for the folks in Moore...Their recent tornado was possibly much worse than the one of 1999. 'Ryan1000' 14:47, May 21, 2013 (UTC) A TROPICAL LOW CROSSING THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA NEAR 10N80W IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SW CARIBBEAN WED. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A SECOND WEAKER LOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N86W EARLY THU...WITH THE LOW MEANDERING IN THAT AREA THIS WEEKEND. I've got a bad feeling for this storm, there isn't much shear ahead of its path and the seas are well over what it should be at this time of the year. The surface low haven't established yet and GFS is predicting a borderline hurricane. And of course, it's pretty horrible to see what's happening in Moore. Hope they can recover from their losses. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 21:25, May 21, 2013 (UTC) :Currently south of Guatemala. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 23:11, May 23, 2013 (UTC) 91E.INVEST Not sure if this is the same system, but it's now 20% on the NHC GTWO. 'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 20:47, May 22, 2013 (UTC) : It is, hopefully it'll become Barbara. Expected to head out to sea like Alvin. 'Ryan1000' 21:50, May 22, 2013 (UTC) ::I'm not sure whether this is the same system. GOES-14 is currently down and I can't really tell if this invest is its westernmost extension or a separate storm. Regardless, GFS predicts a landfalling hurricane around May 30th for the other storm. The current model guidance appears... ominous. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 22:59, May 22, 2013 (UTC) ::::This is the one in the EPac; the one that GFS foresees in the NW Caribbean is a different storm altogether. Regardless, I think this'll become Barbara. 'Ryan1000' 01:33, May 23, 2013 (UTC) ::::::Now 30%, Barbara is on her way. 'Ryan1000' 18:02, May 23, 2013 (UTC) ::::::Even though Barbara might be on her way this year for this basin NOAA is predicting a below average season.Allanjeffs 18:54, May 23, 2013 (UTC) ::::::MJO should hit EPac soon, Barbara's got a chance. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 23:11, May 23, 2013 (UTC) Still at 30%. I think we'll be seeing a season similar to last year, probrably near-normal to slightly below or above normal, more likely than not. However, I'm not looking forward to anything exceptional. My predictions for EPac remain at 14-18 named storms, 6-9 hurricanes, 3-5 majors, and near-normal to slightly above normal ACE. We're going to have ENSO neutral this year, not El Nino or La Nina, but nontheless, it's a year to watch in both the ATL and EPac. 'Ryan1000' 23:36, May 23, 2013 (UTC) Down to 20%Allanjeffs 18:03, May 24, 2013 (UTC) : Eh...I don't think that is the same system as this one. It's further east and south of Central America. This might have been the system GFS was foreseeing.(Forgot to sign in) 'Ryan1000''' 18:49, May 24, 2013 (UTC)